No more sleeper picks. No more extensive research. No more value picks. No more Pollaros taking 5 minutes to make a pick.
It's all about match-ups and wavier wires from here on out.
Thanks to the computer malfunctions, last night did not totally go to plan. Either way, I think OB and Germ are satisfied with the way their teams turned out (more on that later). Some will say it boils down to a single day in the Fantasy Football season to make or break your team.
In the words of Reigning Cup Champ Ken "I suck" Cleary:
"You win drafts in rounds 5 and 6; not 1 and 2."
Let's see how that plays out for him and everybody else this year.
Here is how it turned out in my eyes:
Surprises:
- The first Draft Day trade in BCFFL History, which led to a Bronx Cheer from the Bleacher Creatures.
Don't get me wrong, I am all for the "Ooooooooooohh's". The value (Portis/Chad vs. Peyton/Calvin) may not be there right now, but lets wait til about Week 5 before we analyze the players involved. (Ocho cinco has a torn muscle in his shoulder). Nicky got his Redskin, I got my QB. Toss up at WR.
- I guess its not really a surprise, but Germo has 6 running backs out of his top 7 picks. I think OB was doing his best job at manipulating while sitting next to the kid. Granted the RBs are all starters, but Edge James currently does not have a roster spot. How can you not have a spot for this guy?
And because there are so many Running Back By Committees (RBBC) in the league, it was smart to pick up Mendenhall.
- I took Larry Johnson 3rd overall last year. I believe he has been in the top 5 every year since taking the job from Priest Holmes. The middle of the 3rd round is a great spot to take LJ. Well, unless he is your #1. Don't get me wrong, I love Brady/Fitz, but there is a reason LJ fell so far, he is much more suited to be a #2 RB at this point in his Fantasy career.
- Derek Anderson - 14th QB taken Overall. I will take that, even with Peyton. Although Boone got away with grand theft with Big Ben in the 9th. The dude was a top 5 QB last year. (So was D.A.). Ask Ken if Big Ben is worth a 9th.
- Did I mention Germ has 9 RBs?
- Kitna 19th round? Good drafting by the Champ taking a PK, TD and 2nd TE early in the draft. (Golf clap)
QB Rankings:
1) TT - Looking over the draft board, only Tom Brady was drafted higher than Peyton. Keep in mind, the preseason #1 QB has never finished the season at #1. Manning may be closer to Romo then he is to Brady, but Manning has been a first round QB since his 2nd year in the league. Derek Anderson was a top 5 QB last year. He fell into my lap and obviously fits my bye week.
2) Dean - Just because of Brady. He has the luxury of never having to change his QB. Brady never misses a game and has targets all around him. He is out for revenge after getting embarassed by JTuck last year.
Him and Bill Belicheat are on a mission. Fortunately, Dean has make a backup decision early in the year; Brady has a bye week 4. Delhomme is average.
3) Kenny - Romo, Bulger, Kitna. This has trade bait written all over it. If Bulger has a bounce back year, he could have the top QB (Romo), and 2 other Top 10 QBs. If Ken wasn't a dick to me, I would give him more credit.
4) OB - Brees is another guy who could lead the league in passing. OB was trying to convince me today that Brees wasn't great value in the 4th. I told him, "I wish I was in your division." Rivers sucks donkey dick. (See also: Jason Campbell)
5) Nicky - Hopefully Carson Palmer's broken nose won't make him a pussy. The Bengals suck this year. They are going to be coming from behind in majority of their games. Expect Carson to throw the ball a ton. Campbell isn't a viable #2 QB, in my opinion. Nicky is just being a mierda.
6) Boone - The reason he is here over the next guy is because Big Ben gets to play the Bengals and Browns twice. This isn't your Bill Cowher Steeler team, no more Jerome Bettis, Alan Faneca, etc. The Texans ranked in the top 10 in passing last year, if Schaub can't stay healthy, Boone has got to look at Sage Rosenfels (puke).
7) MJ - All signs point to Donnie the Mac having a bounce back year. Then Kevin Curtis gets hurt. But Desean Jackson has stepped up nicely in preseason. I am still a big fan of Andy Reid's version of the West Coast Offense. If Donovan has the protection, I think he has the the arm to be a drop back QB. I don't think the loss of Shockey will hurt Eli that much, if he can lower his INTs, Eli will throw a lot of TDs and a lot of yards, but to the strong WR core the Gmen have.
8) Germ - Matty the Beck is hurting at WR, but I do like Nasty Nate Burleson. I don't see RBs being a strong point for Seattle this year, so Hassel might be the best Fantasy player on the Seahawks. They still have a decent OL and a great play caller in The Walrus. Garrard is an efficient fantasy QB. He won't throw picks. He won't throw many TDs though, unless its to Reggie Williams.
9) Mike - His 3rd QB might end up being the best one. Warner certainly has some toys on the outside. Jacob the Cut looks more and more like an NFL QB. Denver has always been a running team, keep in mind. Aaron Rodgers looked great in the preseason. I think even Jet fans can root for this guy. He might be able to duplicate Favre's stats from last year.
10) Harrch - I think Favre will be fine. He should finish in the top 10. Everybody knows the risks involved with him. He's old, new system, etc. As long as the Jets are in contention, Favre will be a great asset to Harrch's squad, even if he is that of white descent. Vince Young's best attribute is bringing up your team's street cred. He is fun to watch, but is not even worthy of a roster spot in a 20 team Fantasy League, let alone a 10 teamer.
RB Rankings:
1) Germo - He is stacked. Edge could start on a few teams in the league. The last time he won the BCFFL Cup (06-07) he did it with the same strategy. I think there is a good chance Germo might win the league. I also think there is a good chance this might backfire and Germo could finish dead last in the league. Being in his division, I hope its the latter. It's hard to hate on the fact he has MoJo as his 3rd WR. If Grant can stay healthy, he should put up similar numbers to last year. A lot of Grant's success depends on Aaron Rodgers. Parker/Mendenhall was a smart move. Addai at 7 was a huge drop.
2) Nicky - His confidence in the Redskins' fantasy players is, well, I don't even know. You can pretty much guarantee Nicky will have Portis year in and year out.
"Nick when you taking Betts?"
"I'm not dude, I got this wide receiver that I love"
.....Nick your pick......5 min later.....
"Ladell Betts"
"Great pick, Nicky" - Dean....10 minutes later, Dean finally picks.....
Steven Jackson should have a great year. He is finally healthy and is one of few RBs in the league that you don't need a handcuff for. His OLine is a bit banged up, but Jackson should deliver. This is a very nice 1-2 punch. Pending injuries, he has no other starting RBs though.
3) Mike - No remaining owner has as many starters as Mike. He has 3 solid ones in Gore, Lewis and Forte. Kevin Smith is also the uncontested starter in Detroit. Jonathan Stewart, could be this year's Adrian Peterson, then again so could Forte or Smith. And it doesn't hurt that it was Mike who drafted AP in 5th last year.
4) MJ - What a college backfield this would be: Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson. Two of the most talented RBs our generation has seen, have had different results in the NFL. Peterson exploded onto the scene last year, if he stays healthy, he is a popular choice to lead the league in rushing. Reggie Bush was the first surprise of the draft. But if you like a player, you have to pull the trigger on him. Bush has as good of a shot as any to have the most receptions amongst RBs. He will also see more handoffs this year, we can't expect much from Deuce coming off major surgery. Ernest Graham and JJones are great options. Both could be really productive.
5) TT - Tim has two solid starters at RB. Lynch is one of the rare backs in the league who is going to get 85+% of his team's carries, including goal line. He is also a thread to catch the ball. Jacobs was 4th in the league last year in Rushing Yards per Game. He OLine is intact and Jacobs looks up for the challenge of building off the 1000 yard season last year. Ricky Williams is the starter in Miami, the new Front Office has no patience with Ronnie Brown. Ricky has looked great in camp. BBI (Dean, not the site) informed me "Rudi to be traded." This is great news for both myself and MJ. I can see Rudi going to Seattle (there ya go MJ). When RJ gets traded, Tim fields both the backs involved with the very productive Cincy running game.
6) Boone - I thought about putting Westbrook as a "Surprise" at the beginning of the Newsletter, but then I realized that I would've made the same exact choice. And judging by MJ's reaction (not just in the chat, but by stealing your guys later in the draft), he wanted Westy too. McFadden and Fargas will share carries for a while. McFadden has a ton of potential, if he was this year's Peterson, Boone could run away with the league. Fred Taylor has been great the last two years. He is still the same Fred Taylor that was hurt every year, and he is on the wrong side of 30. I like Fred Taylor, but part of me thinks that Boone took Taylor because he's a Gator. Nobody knows about Ronnie Brown.
7) Harrch - LT is the best RB in the NFL. There really is not much of a debate to that. LT does it all, including catch passes, which makes him the clear cut #1 RB in Fantasy. Westy and AP are nice consolation prizes, but LT is still the cream of the crop. Thomas Jones should be a great #2RB with his newly improved OL, FB and QB. LenDale White was a 1000 yard rusher last year. With Harrch's WR depth, his 3 RBs match up with almost anybodys. It is his depth that worries me.
8) Ken - Very important for Ken to lock Turner and Norwood. But especially with a rookie QB, nobody expects the Falcons to win more then 6 games. And that's being generous. They lack the OL and playmakers at the WR and TE position. I like Turner, but I don't even think LT could run behind the Falcons line. Keep in mind the Falcons D sucks and they will be playing from behind. MB3 is as safe of a 1st round pick as you can get. He might lose some touches to Felix Jones. Fargas is going to start, but for how long? He was productive last year, could be a nice late round pick. Chris Brown is pretty far on the depth chart in Houston.
9) OB - McGahee is going to miss Odgen dearly. And Willis is pretty banged up.
The Ravens are "raving" about Ray Rice. OB would've been smart to draft Ray Ray. Can't blame that on the computer. Larry Maroney is an awesome RB. A fantasy RB though? Belichick loves to throw and spread the ball around. Maroney only started to get a lot of carries towards the end of last season and into the playoffs. Belichick has a boner for Tom Brady and Larry is a threat to take Brady's thunder. Bill B won't let that happen. OB doesn't have much depth at RB. I haven't heard a positive item of news around Deuce in over a year. He looks like he might be done. Torrain is hurt.
10) Dean - LJ as a #1 has got to scare the shit out of an owner. I'm not high on Selvin Young, or the Broncos, and Dean doesn't have Hall, Torrain of Pittman. It's not like Young is the most talented back (he was an un-drafted Rookie FA), and Denver's OL is weak. Center Tom Nalen is hurt, and they have a rookie LT. DeAngelo is going to make or break the RB core. I had LJ and DeAngelo last year, they did nothing to help.
WR/TE Rankings:
1) Boone - His Top 3 WRs could all catch 100 balls. That is huge. Boone also fields 6 starting WRs. A great sleeper in Patrick Crayton, who could be the beneficiary of TO double teams. Vernon Davis is nothing speical at TE. San Fran's QB sucks, and Martz is a train wreck. Dre, Colston and Boldin are also in offenses that love to throw the ball.
2) OB - Moss and Wayne are two of the top 3 WRs. Maybe even the top 2. They are both Pro-Bowlers and are in great offenses. The Colts and Pats both have enough playmakers around them to take the pressure of Wayne/Moss. But are there enough balls to go around? Randy and Reggie had huge years last year. Kellen Winslow is an injury waiting to happen. If he can repeat last year's success, he might be the best TE. Evans is good. Galloway is old and Steve Smith doesn't start. So/So backups.
3) Mike - TO puts up RB stats. He is a Fantasy monster. Mike takes him every year and Mike is in the playoffs every year. No coincidence. When Marshall gets back from suspension, could be earlier then you think, he is a pass catching machine. Just ask Germo. Marshall could and should finish as a Top 10 WR. If he wasn't suspended, he would've been picked a lot higher. Greg Jennings had a breakout year last year, scoring over 10 TDs. If he can wait it out with Chris Henry, he's going to be a nice addition late in the year. Based on his mug, I am not sure he can stay out of trouble. He's talented though.
4) Harrch - If Plaxico can Praxtico, he will finish in the Top 10, maybe Top 5. Keep in mind, he didn't practice at all last year, or even this offseason. He was amazing for the first 1/2 of last season. There are plenty of weapons on the Giants to take double teams away from Plax. He is a monster in the red zone, and can make every catch. Just ask Al Harris.
Cotchery is going to catch 90+ balls again. Without a doubt, he was the happiest member of Gang Green to see Chad leave town for Brett the Jet. Roy Williams is over-rated, but he is still a good fantasy option. We have all been waiting for Roy to "breakout and dominate" but it hasn't happened quite yet. Burleson and Rice were great picks. Touche.
5) MJ - HHH.
My 3 WRs from last year are on MJ's squad. Housh, Holt, Hines. 3 dependable WRs. Housh is going to catch a lot of balls and TDs, and is in a contract year. LIke always, he will outproudce Chad Johnson on a weekly basis. Holt was great value, Boone was quite upset when MJ made him the pick. Hines is healthy and the Steelers finally throw the ball. Holmes takes pressure off Hines. Javon was a nice pick in the 12th. Not high on Shockey. Sean Payton likes to "out-scheme" opponents in the red zone, rather than force the ball to his play makers.
6) Dean
- FItz is a lock to catch 90+ balls and is one of the premier WRs. So is Welker. Dean could/should be rated higher. However, after his top 2, there is a significant drop off. Berrian is a deep threat but with no QB and a great running game. Good fantasy WRs in these tops of Offenses tend to be red zone guys, Berrian is not a red zone threat. Desean Jackson is a great early season starting WR with Kevin Curtis out. He has been making plays in camp for the Birds. WItten is the best Tight End.
7) Ken - Edwards is a true #1 WR. It would be hard for him to duplicate last year's numbers, but he should be good. Donte Stallworth is going to help him, as well as K2, as long as he is healthy. When Steve Smith comes back from suspension, he is a solid #1WR, let alone a #2WR. Gates was a great value pick. I think Curry and Walter have more potential than Roddy White, who was picked 3 rounds prior.
8) Tim - CJ vs. CJ. Calvin vs. Chad. That's what it came down to. Calvin Johnson is going to put that 3rd year WR theory to rest (see Braylon Edwards last year) finally. He is the total package at WR. He reminds me of TO. I probably could have waited for my second 3rd round pick to take him, but I fell in love with Uncle Calvin's potential. If Harrison can be the Marvin Harrison of 2006 and earlier, he is an absolute steal in 5th. Big IF though. Driver is a solid option and solidifies Tim's 3rd WR. Right now, there are 6 starting WRs on this roster.
9) Nicky - Chad's has got to scare the shit out of you. He is a fearless WR who goes over the middle and makes spectacular catches, but Chad is fragile and unpredictable.
Santonio Holmes won't catch a lot of balls, but he will score a lot of TDs and get his share of yardage. I like Heath Miller almost as much as Chris Cooley, but both should be solid. Bowe and Chambers have the potential to make Nicky's WRs Top 5 material.
10) Germ. Laverneus Coles is a great #2 or #3WR, not a #1WR in a PPR league. Not only are Ginn and Hester not going to catch a lot of balls, but they aren't scoring many TDs either. They have more value in special teams. They certainly aren't starting material in a Ten 10 League. His RB depth somewhat makes up for it.
Predictions:
Odds:
MJ: 8-5
Harrch: 7-6
Tim: 6-7
Dean: 5-8
Germ: 5-8
Evens:
Boone: 8-5
Ken: 8-5
Mike: 7-6
Nicky: 6-7
OB: 5-8
Playoffs:
Odds Championship:
Tim over MJ
Evens Championship:
Boone over Kenny
BCFFL Cup Championship
Tim over Boone
You really think I wouldn't put my own squad? Psshh
Who will be Eli Manning (MVP of Championship Game)?
None other then:
Make sure to set your lineups. Until next time....
